A Brief Intro on Points Created - The primary statistical index that The MiB TWiB uses out of many in the toolbox

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The Man In Black

                                             

Points Created Introduced and Explained!
 
In a recent Facebook post, I pointed out that Nikola Jokic has the best stats and chance to become MVP of the NBA this season. That link is below.

His Points Created Numbers on a Per Minute and Per Game Basis are out of this world. The only ones who can even approach his numbers from the Regular Season are Giannis Antetokounmpo and perhaps Joel Embiid, however, each of those guys missed multiple games this season. Jokic played in all 72 games of this Covid-19 shortened season.

In my next post, I will use Points Created to come up with a list of which 3 Centers, which 6 Guards, and which 6 Forwards, will make up the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd All-NBA Teams. I will also provide a list of 35 other players who will most likely get votes using the exact standard.

15 All-NBA Players + 35 Players who deserve votes gives us a list of Top 50 Players in the NBA.

There will be some deserving players who are omitted but I can add those omissions as well in future posts and probably bring the list to a Top 60 or Top 75. That Top 50 List will be on my next post.

Now, let's get back to Points Created.

For those that do not know. Points Created was created by former Washington Bullets/Wizards Statistical Analyst, Bob Bellotti. 

I first came across his work from this book quite a few years back:
https://www.amazon.com/Basketballs-Hidden-Game-Boxscore-Revelations/dp/0962114707

It was written and then self-published in 1988 and I got my hands on the book ready to dominate the Fantasy Basketball Season for 1989. I read the book from cover to cover and gleaned some insight from it and learned that it did a great job of taking box score statistics and then broke them down to a sort of Batting Average that made it easy to digest and compare players. 

Here is an old article about what Bob did for the Wizards.  It's so old that the link had to be rescued via the Wayback Archives. 

https://web.archive.org/web/20170904025408/http://www.truthaboutit.net/2010/10/the-statistical-wizardry-of-bob-bellotti-the-washington-basketball-team.html 

From that book, I was exposed to this simplified formula:
FGA-FGM + FTA-FTM + Turnovers + PF/2 = Negative Score 
Total Points + Total Steals + Total Blocks + Total Assists + Total Rebounds = Positive Score 

Take Positive and subtract Negative to come up with Total Score and then Divide by Minutes Played for the Per Minute Score OR Divide by Games Played for the Per Game Score. 

Per Minute Scores can be interpreted as Effectiveness or Productivity per minutes played.
Per Game Scored can be interpreted as Effectiveness or Productivity per games played.

Example given. Most likely MVP Nikola Jokic

Negative Score Caclulation: 1293 FGA-732 FGM = 561 FG Misses + 394 FTA-342 FTM = 52 FT Misses + 222 Turnovers + 192 Personal Fouls/2=96 Foul Score Means a Negative Score of  931

Positive Score Calculation: 1898 Total Points + 95 Steals + 48 Blocks + 599 Assists + 780 Rebounds Means a Positive Score of 3420 

So take the Positive and subtract the Negative to come up with Points Created Total Score and then take that number and divide by Minutes and Games Played to come up with both scores. 
3420-931 = 2489 Points Created Total Score 
2489/2488 Minutes Played  = 1.000 Points Created Per Minute
2489/72 Games Played = 34.569 Points Created Per Game 

Nikola Jokic
1.000 Per Minute 
34.569 Per Game 


Numbers like this are Rare Air indeed. 

The best Spur is DeMar DeRozan. His Points Created Per Minute and Per Game are .665 and 22.410 which projects him to be amongst the Top 30 Best Players in the NBA. You might think that compared to Jokic that DeRozan is not in his class. However, when you see the differences in how each player's coach and team, use their stars, it is easy to see that Jokic plays more minutes, has a higher usage rate, and is expected to carry the full weight of Denver's expectations. 

DeRozan plays for Pop and as such, it is more of a Share The Wealth mentality and all players in this system move the ball in an effort to get a good to a great shot. That impacts an individual Spur somewhat negatively, but from a team perspective, it is exactly what Pop demands of his players. 

Take a lookback at Pop saying, "I wrecked your career stats!"
https://youtu.be/c1KLIxklbyM?t=265

Now that you have the calculation and have seen a real example, you guys should try Points Created for yourselves. Below, I have added the breakdown of how to interpret the Points Created Per Minute Score with a limited summary of the Points Created Per Game Score. Again, try it for yourselves. When you run the numbers, it gives you tangible evidence to use when you are talking hoops with those that rely strictly on intangible factors like Eye Test or Mere Opinion. 

I do have a Spreadsheet that I can share with you guys if you want to run individual stats for your favorite players, trade targets, free-agent targets, draft possibilities, and even your own stats for your rec league or your kid's league. The Scale will change somewhat, but the efficiency shows if you are solid, need work, or need all kinds of work. 

Rating Scale for PC Effectiveness or Productivity per Minute
*This scale was set prior to the 2003 Season - The greatest change involves the changing of the shot clock on Offensive Rebounds. It used to reset to a full 24, but as of the 2018-2019 Season, the shot clock on Offensive Rebounds resets to 14 seconds only. This results in a faster pace with more possessions. More possession means an uptick in statistics.

For comparison's sake, check out this post from our Facebook Page:
https://www.facebook.com/SpursMenInBlack/posts/1098031330683963 
The great Tim Duncan finished his 2nd MVP Year by winning a title and Finals MVP. 
Check his score from that post against Jokic for this season. 

Above .650 - Superstar category. Normally, only the top players consistently reach this level of performance for an ENTIRE SEASON.

.550-.649 -All-Stars are in this range, or either just below or above it.

.450-.549 - Good players who are sometimes outstanding fall into this category.

.350-.449 -Regulars. Solid players who are either starters or among a team's first seven or eight regulars.

.250-.349 -Poor. Players here are mostly rookies or vets whose skills are declining. They could be single skill specialists like 3 Point Shooters or could be solid at position defense. That EFFORT does not show up on a box score.

Below .249 - Awful. Players in this category are living life on the edge. Most are soon traded or released or sent to the G-League.

Rating Scale for PC per Game Average

Typically, anyone who scores above 10 plays a lot of minutes and contributes meaningful stats for the team.

Frontline Players provide at least a score of 20 

MVP level Players provide at least a score of 25.